Sure, anyone can do predictions at the beginning of the year.
Making bold predictions is a natural column/blog post/show host monologue for media members to produce at the end of December and the beginning of January. Coming on the heels of all the “year-in-review” stuff, it makes a natural segue to predicting things for the upcoming year. (BTW, a neat trick among radio hosts is to make several earth-shattering predictions at this time, then bring them up if they come true. If they don’t, how many people have remembered what you falsely predicted months before??)
But it takes a true prognosticator —or at least a very good imposter—to re-examine those predictions made in January, and then, in the interest of full disclosure, follow up on how those predictions are fairing.
So before we make predictions for the rest of the year (which will come in next week’s blog entry), here is a listing of predictions/observations I made this past winter on “SportsTalk,” and the truthful, and sometimes painful, realities of each one.
- PREDICTION: The Phillies will be bad.
OUTCOME: While I could certainly brag that I got this one correct—especially after the Phillies had a six game winning streak and people started arguing with me that they had a shot to make the playoffs—I must admit that I didn’t think that they would be THIS horrific. We’re talking “Sam Hinkie Year-One Tanking” bad here. True, by being historically dreadful, they’ve allowed themselves a very realistic opportunity to snarl the number-one pick in next year’s draft. But a top MLB draft pick isn’t always a guarantee as in the NFL or NBA, and there are a lot of empty seats that need to be filled at Citizen Bank Park for the team to be this horrendous. Whether bandwagon-jumping is appropriate or not, fans will return when this team eventually gets good again. In the meantime, however, the organization is taking some well-placed slings-and-arrows by media pundits from around the country for its putrid play, and racking up more losses at a pace faster than any other squad in the franchise’s history. Even with this mirage of an 8-1 record since this All-Star break, I didn’t think the team would lose as many games as they will eventually accumulate—assuming, of course, that the team unloads its top players this week as they appear they’d like to do.
- PREDICTION: The Redskins will have a successful NFL Draft under new GM Scot McCloughan.
OUTCOME: I would again say I was correct, but I’m not sure I was completely convinced that it was as highly successful a draft as I thought it would be. Brandon Scherff is a good choice for a team that needed a major boost on the offensive line and I really liked Preston Smith to improve the defense. However, I wasn’t overly enthralled with any of the other picks. One can argue that the top picks are the ones that count the most, but I could argue that the first couple rounds are also the easiest (along with the most risky) to successfully select. From the experts I talked with who covered the Redskins’ mini-camp sessions this summer, the team will definitely be improved this fall. However, I didn’t see them make that “diamond-in-the-rough” addition that I thought the ‘Skins might be able to pick up…not yet, anyway.
- PREDICTION: The Flyers will bounce back.
OUTCOME: While I would love to lay down a verbal bait-and-switch here and say that by “bouncing back,” I meant that GM Ron Hextall would pull off a flurry of post-season moves, clearing cap space and acquiring young talent. However, since I have hooked my fingers to a truthometer here on my keyboard, I must admit that I was referring to the team playing better in the second half of the ’14-’15 campaign. While it ultimately proved better for the team to not make the playoffs and get a better slot in the NHL draft with a lower, out-of-the-playoffs finish, I still have to withstand a blow for this incorrect prediction and admit that the team did not rebound enough to qualify for the post-season, as I had suggested in late December.
Be sure to check back next week here at the “SportsTalk Shop” for part two of our “predictions” series, as I’ll address some scholastic prognosis, as well as a “Stone Cold Lock” I’ll present for the sports fans in the Washington DC area.
